July 1, 2019

Chart of the Week: Fathom’s U.S. ESI rebounds in May

by Fathom Consulting.

U.S. business and consumer sentiment increased to a six-month high in May, according to Fathom’s US Economic Sentiment Indicator (US ESI). The index climbed from 3.8% to 4.7%; 19 of the 23 components posting stronger readings than the previous month with 18 above their long-run average. As discussed in our recent Global Economic and Markets Outlook we think that investors are overestimating the probability of the Fed cutting rates this year (one 25 basis point cut now seems possible, although not three as priced in by the market) — last week’s ESI reading supports that view. Admittedly, inflationary pressures have remained somewhat subdued and we think that GDP growth is set to slow from an annualised pace of 3.1% in Q1, but we do not think that it will slow enough to warrant a rate cut, or to spur the Fed into imminent action, as many investors seem to expect.

Refresh the chart in your browser Edit chart in Datastream

The chart in this article has been created using Chartbook on Datastream. The Chartbook was initially created by Fathom Consulting in 2012 and is now a catalogue of approximately 9000 charts, covering over 170 countries, analysing up-to-date macro and financial data. Whether it is a particular topic, country or variable you are interested in charting, the Chartbook has everything you need. To access Chartbook via Datastream search ‘cbook’.

__________________________________________________________________________________

Datastream

Financial time series database which allows you to identify and examine trends, generate and test ideas and develop view points on the market.

Refinitiv offers the world’s most comprehensive historical database for numerical macroeconomic and cross-asset financial data which started in the 1950s and has grown into an indispensable resource for financial professionals. Find out more.

Get In Touch

Subscribe

We have updated our Privacy Statement. Before you continue, please read our new Privacy Statement and familiarize yourself with the terms.×