The ADP private employment release for April showed that 20 million workers stopped receiving their pay cheques in April. We expect the employment report out this Friday to show that 25 million people will have ceased to be employed, greater than the -22 million consensus figure. With restrictions on mobility being relaxed around the world, economic data is likely to improve over the coming months. As this happens, we think there will be a shift in narrative towards scrutinising the cumulative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economies and away from the size of the initial shock.
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