Chart of the Week: Health outcomes remain key to the economic outlook

The disparity between countries’ second quarter GDP outturns is striking. Data from China — which is ahead of the most others in terms of bringing the disease back under control — show a strong rebound in economic activity in the three months to June. To the extent that this is sustainable, it raises hopes that a V-shaped recovery is possible. However, how countries handle the spread of the virus remains key; countries with success in this (e.g. South Korea and Vietnam) have experienced milder contractions than those who have not done so well (e.g. the US and the euro area). Provisional data from Sweden suggest that bad economic outcomes can occur even without government-imposed lockdowns.

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