To date, 161 of the 188 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2026, representing 85% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 71% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 25% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2026 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 26.4%.
The blended revenue growth estimate for the 188 companies in this index is 7.4% for Q1 2026. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 70% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 30% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.
Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
This week in retail
Dick’s Sporting Goods posted a sharp 62.7% increase in Q1 revenue, reflecting continued strength in consumer demand for sporting goods and aligning with recent U.S. retail sales data, which showed the category among the strongest areas of spending growth last month. However, softer performance at Foot Locker weighed on overall results, causing the retailer to come in slightly below Q1 earnings expectations. Dick’s delivered particularly strong same-store sales (SSS) growth of 6.0%, roughly double expectations, while Foot Locker posted a positive comparable sales increase of 0.6%, marking its first positive comp performance in two years. Despite these encouraging trends, management maintained a conservative full-year outlook amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and cautious consumer spending patterns.
Abercrombie & Fitch reported its 14th consecutive quarter of sales growth, though results were mixed as the retailer beat earnings expectations but fell short on revenue estimates. Same-store sales performance was also mixed across regions, with the strongest growth driven by APAC and the Abercrombie brands in the Americas. Meanwhile, sales in the EMEA region were negatively impacted by unrest in the Middle East, particularly within the Hollister brand. Management noted that the company is proactively managing inventory and marketing efforts to support performance in the region. Despite ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures, the retailer maintained its full-year outlook.
Positive Earnings Surprise
As predicted by StarMine, both Ross Stores and TJX exceeded earnings expectations and delivered positive surprises, reinforcing continued strength in value-oriented retail. As consumers continue to seek value, analysts surveyed by LSEG continue to favor discount and other value oriented retailers. Looking ahead, sentiment remains particularly positive on Five Below’s Q1 performance, with results expected next week. Consensus estimates currently call for Q1 2026 EPS of $1.73; however, the StarMine Predicted Surprise is above 2%, signaling a strong likelihood that Five Below could also deliver both an earnings beat and a positive surprise.
The StarMine SmartEstimate is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate differs from the consensus (I/B/E/S mean) by more than 2%, the company is likely to post subsequent earnings surprises directionally correct 70% of the time. This percentage difference is referred to as the Predicted Surprise (PS%) (Exhibit 2).
Other retailers with Predicted Surprise scores above 2.0% include:
Exhibit 2: The LSEG Retail/Restaurant Index Positive Earnings Surprise %: Q1 2026
Source: LSEG Workspace
Here are the latest Q1 2026 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:
Exhibit 3: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q1 2026
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
