Q1 2023 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update May 22, 2023

To date, 151 of the 204 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2023, representing 74% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 79% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 1% delivered on-target results and 20% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2023 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 32.3%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 204 companies in this index is 4.4% for Q1 2023. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 75% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 25% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

This week in retail

A number of retailers will report Q1 2023 earnings this week. Analysts polled by Refinitiv are bullish on two particular retailers and have been revising their estimates upwards. Moreover, according to StarMine, they are likely to beat earnings estimates and post a positive surprise. Discounter BJ’s Wholesale is receiving a boost from consumers trading down and sticking to staples. Meanwhile, Ulta Beauty continues to receive a boost from the reopening.

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates–Q1 2023

Source: Eikon Workspace