Q4 2024 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update February 20, 2025

To date, 115 of the 196 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q4 2024, representing 59% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 72% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 8% delivered on-target results and 20% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q4 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 13.9%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 196 companies in this index is 3.9% for Q4 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 72% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 28% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

This week in retail

Walmart’s stock price dropped by 6.5% due to softer guidance, and the overall stock market closed lower. However, as predicted by StarMine, Walmart exceeded its Q4 earnings expectations, delivering a positive surprise. The retail giant also surpassed its revenue and same-store sales estimates. Despite higher prices, consumers continue to flock to Walmart for its everyday low prices. The discounter reported gaining market share across various countries and income levels, with upper-income households contributing significantly to these gains (Source: Walmart Earnings Call, LSEG Events, 2/20/2025). Transaction counts and unit volumes increased across markets, and Walmart’s global membership income grew by 21% to approximately $3.8 billion. This growth is expected to be a major driver of operating income, outpacing sales growth.

Looking ahead to Q4 earnings next week, Home Depot is set to report its results. The consensus estimate for Home Depot’s Q4 2024 EPS is $3.00. However, a five-star rated analyst with a highly accurate track record has published a Bold Estimate, predicting an EPS of $3.21, significantly above the consensus.

Here are the Q4 2024 earnings and same store sales estimates for the companies reporting this week:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q4 2024

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S