Q4 2024 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update February 25, 2025 

To date, 128 of the 195 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q4 2024, representing 66% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 74% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 7% delivered on-target results and 19% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q4 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 14.4%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 195 companies in this index is 4.0% for Q4 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 73% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 27% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

This week in retail

Home Depot exceeded expectations in Q4, reporting stronger-than-anticipated earnings, revenue, and same-store sales (SSS) growth. The company posted a 0.8% SSS, marking a turnaround after eight consecutive quarters of negative comps. Consumer engagement remained robust, with widespread activity across 15 out of 19 US regions, despite ongoing pressure on large remodeling projects (Source: LSEG Events, Home Depot Q4 2024 Earnings Call). Home Depot continues to prioritize its omnichannel shopping experience, focusing on faster deliveries and greater convenience. Additionally, the company plans to expand its footprint by opening more stores in the US and Mexico.

Lowe’s is set to report its Q4 earnings this week, with analysts polled by LSEG optimistic about its performance. The consensus estimate for Lowe’s Q4 2024 EPS is $1.84. However, a highly rated five-star analyst, known for a strong track record, has issued a bold estimate of $2.03 EPS, surpassing the consensus. The StarMine Predicted Surprise suggests that Lowe’s is likely to beat earnings and post a positive surprise.

The StarMine SmartEstimate is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate differs from the consensus (I/B/E/S mean) by more than 2%, the company is likely to post subsequent earnings surprises directionally correct 70% of the time. This percentage difference is referred to as the Predicted Surprise (PS%) (Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 2: Lowe’s StarMine SmartEstimate and Predicted Surprise %: Q4 2024

Source: LSEG Workspace

Here are the Q4 2024 earnings and same store sales estimates for the companies reporting this week:

Exhibit 3: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q4 2024
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S