To date, 155 of the 190 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q4 2025, representing 82% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 60% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 6% delivered on-target results and 34% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q4 2025 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 2.4%.
The blended revenue growth estimate for the 190 companies in this index is 5.1% for Q4 2025. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 66% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 34% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.
Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
This week in retail
Target and Best Buy both delivered mixed results this holiday season, underscoring the uneven consumer environment and intensifying competitive pressures in U.S. retail.
Target posted fourth‑quarter earnings ahead of expectations but fell short on revenue and same‑store sales (SSS). Notably, the company again recorded declining customer traffic across its channels, reflecting ongoing market‑share losses to Walmart and rapidly expanding off‑price competitors. Value‑oriented consumers, still feeling the effects of persistent inflation, are gravitating toward retailers offering sharper price perception and more frequent deals. In addition to economic pressures, Target has faced social‑driven disruptions and broader macro headwinds that weighed on shopper behavior in 2025.
Despite these challenges, Target’s newly installed leadership struck an optimistic tone on the earnings call, emphasizing accelerated execution and a renewed focus on Target’s differentiated position in American retail. Management’s commentary suggests the company is moving with greater urgency to stabilize traffic and reignite growth.
Best Buy reported a similar pattern; revenue and comparable sales came in below expectations (SSS -0.8%), but profitability outperformed. According to the company, internal data indicates overall market share held steady during the holiday quarter, pointing instead to softer demand across the consumer electronics industry. The category also continues to face cost pressures from elevated tariffs, an issue Best Buy is working to mitigate without passing meaningful price increases on to shoppers.
While big‑box and electronics retailers struggled to drive traffic, Ross Stores is poised to deliver a strong 4.0% same‑store sales increase, reflecting sustained momentum across the off‑price sector. Value‑seeking shoppers remain highly motivated to “trade down” without sacrificing brand aspirations, driving ongoing market share gains for off‑price chains at the expense of traditional department stores.
That dynamic continues to weigh on Macy’s, which is tracking toward a -2.2% sales decline for the holiday period as consumers favor off‑price channels for branded apparel and accessories.
Here are the latest Q4 2025 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:
Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q4 2025
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
