To date, 159 of the 190 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q4 2025, representing 84% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 61% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 6% delivered on-target results and 33% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q4 2025 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 2.5%.
The blended revenue growth estimate for the 190 companies in this index is 5.2% for Q4 2025. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 67% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 33% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.
Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
This week in retail
The holiday 2025 season once again highlighted the power of value‑driven retail, with Ross Stores and Bath & Body Works delivering standout performances, while Abercrombie & Fitch struggled to keep pace. The results reinforce a clear theme this earnings season: affordability remained top‑of‑mind for consumers navigating an inflation‑pressured environment.
Ross Stores dramatically outperformed expectations, posting a 9.0% same‑store sales (SSS) increase, more than doubling its already-optimistic 4.0% forecast. The company’s robust holiday performance propelled its stock to a new 52‑week high following its better‑than‑expected quarterly earnings report. Management reinforced the momentum, noting that early reads on its fresh spring assortment are “off to a very strong start,” signaling sustained demand as consumers continue to seek branded merchandise at off‑price value.
Bath & Body Works also delivered a strong holiday showing, handily beating both Q4 earnings and revenue expectations. The retailer benefited from heightened demand for its core categories, antibacterial products, lotions, and gift‑ready personal care essentials, which remained a go‑to for holiday shoppers. The continued strength of its product mix is driving strategic expansion, including the decision to begin selling select merchandise on Amazon’s marketplace, widening its reach to value‑conscious consumers seeking convenience.
Within the same value‑oriented category, Five Below is on track for an impressive 12.9% SSS increase, further underscoring the sector’s resilience. The retailer’s sharp price focus and novelty‑driven assortment made it one of the season’s biggest destinations, reinforcing affordability as the defining theme of the quarter.
In contrast, Abercrombie & Fitch reported solid top‑ and bottom‑line beats but delivered a softer‑than‑expected SSS result for the holiday period. Both the Abercrombie brand and its Hollister division missed expectations, though Hollister posted comparatively stronger performance. Meanwhile, competitor American Eagle is poised for a notably stronger quarter, with an anticipated 8.9% comp gain for Q4 2025, further evidence that teen shoppers are prioritizing value, even within discretionary apparel.
Here are the latest Q4 2025 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:
Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q4 2025
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
