To date, 168 of the 188 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2026, representing 89% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 72% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 24% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2026 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 26.5%.
The blended revenue growth estimate for the 188 companies in this index is 7.4% for Q1 2026. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 71% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 29% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.
Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
This week in retail
The latest round of retail earnings underscores a widening divide across consumer income cohorts. Higher-income shoppers continue to spend freely on premium goods, supporting strong results at Williams-Sonoma and Ralph Lauren. Both retailers highlighted robust demand for full-price merchandise, demonstrating the resilience of affluent consumers despite ongoing economic uncertainty. In contrast, middle-income consumers are becoming more selective with discretionary purchases. Best Buy reported weakness in appliance sales, while Home Depot and Lowe’s noted that consumers are delaying larger home renovation projects. However, these shoppers are still seeking premium brands at lower prices, helping drive strong performance at off-price retailers such as TJX and Burlington, both of which reported same-store sales (SSS) growth of 6.0%.
At the lower end of the income spectrum, value remains paramount. Dollar Tree reported healthy SSS growth of 3.5%, driven by a 4.5% increase in average ticket, partially offset by a 1.0% decline in traffic. The results suggest that budget-conscious consumers are consolidating purchases into fewer shopping trips as higher gasoline prices and living costs continue to pressure household budgets.
Apparel retailers delivered mixed results. Gap missed revenue expectations, narrowly exceeded earnings estimates, and reported SSS growth of 2.0%, below its 3.1% estimate. The namesake Gap brand remained a bright spot, posting 10% SSS growth. However, slowing momentum at Old Navy weighed on results, with SSS increasing just 1.0%, reflecting continued weakness in women’s apparel. Despite trimming its revenue outlook, management raised its full-year EPS guidance. Similarly, American Eagle reported mixed results as strong performance at Aerie offset weakness in its core brand. Aerie delivered impressive SSS growth of 25%, while the flagship American Eagle banner reported a 2.0% decline in comparable sales, primarily due to softness in women’s apparel. Although revenue exceeded expectations, investors remained focused on challenges within the core business.
Meanwhile, Costco continued to benefit from consumers seeking value and lower fuel prices. The warehouse club reported an 11.6% increase in revenue, while earnings met expectations. Same-store sales surged 10.0%, membership income rose sharply, and e-commerce sales grew 21%, reinforcing one of the key themes of this earnings season: consumers are increasingly embracing digital shopping and delivery convenience. Overall, the latest results suggest that consumers remain willing to spend, but they are becoming far more selective about where and how they allocate their dollars. Value-oriented retailers, warehouse clubs, and membership-based models continue to gain share, while apparel and discretionary retailers remain heavily dependent on strong product assortments, promotional strategies, and execution.
Here are the latest Q1 2026 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:
Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q1 2026
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
