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The August reading for Fathom’s US Economic Sentiment Indicator was 3.8%, as weakness in manufacturing continued to be more than offset by resilience elsewhere. Global activity remains sluggish and is set to get worse over the next year, with the manufacturing sector highly exposed. But the bigger picture is that sentiment in the US has appeared unusually high relative to domestic economic conditions for some time. We expect US GDP growth to soften over the next couple of years, while avoiding recession, eventually dragging down sentiment with it.
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