Q4 2021 US Retail Scorecard – Update 15 February 2022

Forty-one percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q4 2021 EPS. Of the 82 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 78% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 2% matched and 20% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q4 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 46.0%.

The Q4 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 12.8%. Seventy-two percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 28% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Retail earnings this week

The pandemic caused store closures, which forced consumers to go online to make purchases. As a result, “online sales” is one of the least disruptive measures. E-commerce sales results will continue to reveal whether the flight to online spending looks to become permanent or is fading.

Below are this week’s Q4 digital sales growth estimates, which suggest business volume is holding up on top of very difficult comparisons from a year ago:

Exhibit 2: E-commerce Sales Estimates/Results –Q4 2021

Source: Refinitiv I/B/E/S estimates

Here are this week’s Q4 2021 earnings and same store sales expectations:

Exhibit 3: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates–Q4 2021

Source: Refinitiv I/B/E/S estimates