December 23, 2019

Chart of the Week: Pre-election slump for UK economic sentiment

by Fathom Consulting.

Fathom’s UK Economic Sentiment Indicator, which weights together a range of business and consumer surveys, was -0.2% in November — the lowest reading since August 2009. This gauge, which is calibrated to have the same mean and standard deviation as quarterly GDP growth, has been in contractionary territory since the summer. In our judgement, the UK ESI provides a useful guide to the underlying pace of economic activity. Based on survey data, it is more timely and less erratic than the official GDP statistics. Taking into account the official statistics available to date, and other indicators of economic activity including our ESI, we expect to see a small 0.1% contraction in the size of the UK economy in the final quarter of this year.

Refresh the chart in your browser Edit chart in Datastream



Financial time series database which allows you to identify and examine trends, generate and test ideas and develop view points on the market.

Refinitiv offers the world’s most comprehensive historical database for numerical macroeconomic and cross-asset financial data which started in the 1950s and has grown into an indispensable resource for financial professionals. Find out more.

Get In Touch


We have updated our Privacy Statement. Before you continue, please read our new Privacy Statement and familiarize yourself with the terms.×