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Fathom’s UK Economic Sentiment Indicator, which weights together a range of business and consumer surveys, was -0.2% in November — the lowest reading since August 2009. This gauge, which is calibrated to have the same mean and standard deviation as quarterly GDP growth, has been in contractionary territory since the summer. In our judgement, the UK ESI provides a useful guide to the underlying pace of economic activity. Based on survey data, it is more timely and less erratic than the official GDP statistics. Taking into account the official statistics available to date, and other indicators of economic activity including our ESI, we expect to see a small 0.1% contraction in the size of the UK economy in the final quarter of this year.
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