Q4 2019 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update Feb. 21, 2020

Fifty seven percent of companies in the Refinitiv Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q4 2019 EPS. Of the 119 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 71% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 6% reported earnings in line with expectations and 23% reported earnings below expectations. The Q4 2019 blended earnings growth estimate is 8.0%.

 The Q4 2019 blended revenue growth estimate is 4.6%. Fifty eight percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations and 42% reported revenue below expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Retail Earnings this week

Walmart missed its Q4 earnings, revenue and SSS estimates. There’s definitely a shift in consumer spending. Transactions took a big hit, dropping to 1.0% from the 5.7% growth seen in the previous quarter. Due to the shorter than usual holiday season, traffic was more impactful online. As a result, e-commerce sales grew 35%, racking up the eighth consecutive quarter of growth above 30%.

Here are the Same Store Sales and Earnings estimates for retailers reporting earnings this week:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates/results – Week of Feb 24, 2019

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv