Q3 2020 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update November 20, 2020

Eighty two percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q3 2020 EPS. Of the 168 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 90% reported earnings above analyst expectations and 10% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q3 2020 blended earnings growth estimate is -8.0%.

The Q3 2020 blended revenue growth estimate is 4.6%. Seventy-nine percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 21% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Retail earnings this week

It was another stellar quarter for Williams Sonoma, suggesting consumers are still spending money on improving the stay-at-home experience. It smashed its earnings, revenue and same-store sales estimates.

The results also underlined the dichotomy between brick-and-mortar and e-commerce business segments. The retailer said that its brick-and-mortar sales decreased 11%, while its e-commerce comparable sales grew a robust 49.3%.

With COVID cases resurging, retail online businesses will continue to steal a big portion of the in-store market share. The amount of money consumers spend online continues to grow. As a result, Q4 e-commerce is expected to continue to grow to 15.2% as a percentage of total U.S. retail sales, according to Refinitiv IFR.

Exhibit 2: Earnings and Same Store Sales Estimates/Results – Q3 2020

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv