December 10, 2020

Fathom’s Recovery Watch Chart 09_12_2020: US jobs growth slows as virus prompts fresh restrictions

by Fathom Consulting.

Data released at the end of last week pointed to a 245,000 increase in net, non-farm US payrolls in November. That marked a slowdown from October’s 610,000 increase but suggested some resilience in the economy despite a sharp increase in coronavirus infections through the month. It seems likely that December’s jobs report will show a drop in US employment, however, as surging infections lead to increased economic restrictions in some states. Last week, the California governor, Gavin Newsom, announced that stay-at-home orders would be automatically triggered when regions fell below 15% spare capacity in intensive care units. Within days, areas accounting for more than three quarters of the state’s population were subject to the restrictions. The Golden State accounts for 12% of US employment, and 15% of GDP. Nonetheless, with permanent layoffs across the country stabilising at levels below those seen during the Global Financial Crisis, the arrival of vaccines should lead to renewed jobs growth through 2021.

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This chart is taken from Fathom’s Recovery Watch newsletter. Click here to subscribe.

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