Q4 2020 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update March 17, 2020

Ninety two percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q4 2020 EPS. Of the 187 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 71% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 2% matched and 27% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q4 2020 blended earnings growth estimate is -11.1%.

The Q4 2020 blended revenue growth estimate is 7.7%. Sixty seven percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 33% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Q4 2020 retail earnings

All eyes are on Williams Sonoma and Nike, which are expected to report earnings this week. The StarMine SmartEstimate suggests that Williams Sonoma is likely to beat its earnings estimate and post a positive surprise. Shoppers purchased home related goods during the holiday season, a strong trend moving into Q1 2021.

Meanwhile, retail business have been disrupted by recent freight issues at various U.S. ports. Despite these issues, analysts polled by Refinitiv are bullish on strong digital demand for Nike in Asia, which will help offset the company’s weakness in the U.S. and Europe, still subject to lockdown.

For Q4 2020, Citi Trends received a boost from strong apparel sales and reported a robust 16.7% SSS. Overall, apparel sales are starting to pick up as we approach the Easter holiday.

Looking forward to retailers reporting Q4 earnings, here are Refinitiv expectations:

Exhibit 2: Retailers Reporting Q4 2020 Same Store Sales and Earnings

Source: Refinitiv I/B/E/S