To date, 148 of the 185 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2026, representing 80% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 73% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 5% delivered on-target results and 22% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2026 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 67.3%.
The blended revenue growth estimate for the 148 companies in this index is 7.7% for Q2 2026. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 72% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 28% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.
Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
This week in retail
Today’s retail results underscore just how selective the U.S. consumer has become. Target is winning back traffic through a combination of value, newness and convenience, while TJX continues to benefit from consumers’ persistent hunt for value. Lowe’s, however, highlights the other side of the consumer story: households remain far more hesitant when faced with larger discretionary purchases, particularly those tied to the still-challenging housing market.
Target exceeded Q2 earnings expectations, posted a 5.3% increase in revenue and raised its full-year guidance. The bar was relatively high following the retailer’s strong first-quarter comeback, but the standout metric was a 3.6% increase in traffic. The improvement is significant because Target’s growth is being driven by more consumers shopping its stores and digital channels rather than primarily by higher prices, extending the momentum seen in Q1. As a result, Same Store Sales (SSS) rose 3.8%, comfortably above the 2.5% consensus estimate. The results suggest that Target’s efforts to sharpen its value proposition and improve the shopping experience are resonating with an increasingly discerning consumer.
Meanwhile, TJX continues to demonstrate the structural advantages of the off-price model in a value-conscious environment. Strong customer traffic helped the company exceed earnings and revenue expectations, while comparable sales increased 4.0%, matching last year’s robust performance. Revenue rose 5% to $15.2 billion, while EPS jumped 24% to $1.36. Although earnings benefited from tariff refunds, adjusted EPS excluding that benefit still increased a solid 11% to $1.22. Strength was broad-based, with SSS at HomeGoods, Canada and International, rising 6%-7%, although Marmaxx came in at 1.0% below consensus estimate. With profitability exceeding plan, TJX raised its full-year margin and EPS outlook, reinforcing the view that consumers remain willing to spend when they perceive compelling value.
Lowe’s, however, illustrates where consumer caution remains most pronounced. While households have not stopped investing in their homes, they continue to postpone larger discretionary projects amid housing affordability pressures and broader economic uncertainty. Professional demand remains more resilient than DIY, but the company’s more cautious outlook suggests management does not expect a meaningful near-term improvement in big-ticket consumer demand. SSS increased just 0.2%, below the 0.8% consensus estimate, while revenue also fell short of expectations.
Taken together, the results point not to a consumer in retreat, but to one who is increasingly deliberate about where and how to spend. Retailers offering clear value, convenience and compelling merchandise continue to attract traffic and gain share, while categories requiring larger financial commitments remain under pressure. The widening gap between value-driven retail and big-ticket discretionary spending remains a key theme heading into the second half of 2026.
Here are the latest Q2 2026 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:
Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q2 2026
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
