China smashed its previous records on external trade in 2021. Amid the strong global economic recovery, both goods exports and imports surged by 30%, to $3.4 trillion and $2.7 trillion respectively. The overall trade surplus on goods rose from $524bn in 2020 to $676bn in 2021, surpassing the previous high of $594bn in 2015. Despite ongoing tariffs, exports to the United States increased by 28% to $576bn and the trade surplus reached a new high at almost $400bn.
External trade has been a key support for the Chinese economy recently, as problems in the property sector and the country’s draconian zero-Covid strategy have weighed on growth. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to annual GDP growth in 2021, up from 0.6 percentage points in 2020. A major switch back to spending on services from goods in advanced economies is an important downside risk for the Chinese economy in 2022.
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