Q4 2021 US Retail Scorecard – Update February 23, 2022

Sixty-three percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q4 2021 EPS. Of the 126 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 77% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 2% matched and 21% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q4 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 46.6%.

The Q4 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 13.6%. Seventy-six percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 24% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Q4 2021 earnings

Retailers have been reporting mixed Q4 2021 earnings. TJX missed its earnings, revenue and same store sales estimates. Its sales were hurt by store closures related to Covid. As a result, its apparel business suffered the most, while its Home Goods division posted a robust 22% comp.

Still, the retailers below are seeing stronger revenue results than in the previous two years:

Exhibit 2: Revenue and Net Income Estimates and Results: 2019 – 2021

Source: Refinitiv I/B/E/S estimates

Of the 126 companies in the retail/restaurant index that have reported Q4 2021 earnings, 89 mentioned inflation, and 111 mentioned supply issues.

Here are this and next week’s Q4 2021 earnings and same store sales expectations:

Exhibit 3: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates–Q4 2021