U.S. Retail Earnings Update: August 22, 2024

To date, 162 of the 199 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2024, representing 81% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 72% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 24% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 14.0%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 199 companies in this index is 3.7% for Q2 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 50% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 50% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

This week in retail

BJ’s Wholesale benefited from a price-conscious consumer base, reporting a 3.1% increase in same-store sales (SSS), nearly double its 1.6% estimate. Although the retailer missed its Q2 revenue estimate, it exceeded earnings expectations due to increased store traffic and growth in both existing and new memberships. Additionally, its digital business experienced a robust 22.0% year-over-year growth.

In contrast, Williams-Sonoma showed mixed results. The home furnishing retailer exceeded its Q2 earnings estimate but fell short on revenue and SSS. Weak macroeconomic conditions and housing sector performance are dampening demand for home goods. Consumers are also cautious about spending on items priced above $1,000. Williams-Sonoma lowered its full-year guidance.

Urban Outfitters surpassed Q2 earnings and revenue estimates but missed on SSS. The apparel retailer noted a slow start to the third quarter, with constant store traffic but a decrease in units purchased. Despite the SSS miss, Free People and Anthropologie continue to post strong comparable sales, with increases of 7.1% and 6.7%, respectively.

Here are the Q2 2024 earnings and same store sales estimates for the companies reporting this week:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q2 2024

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S