To date, 171 of the 190 companies in our LSEG Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q4 2025, representing 90% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 62% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 6% delivered on-target results and 32% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q4 2025 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 2.8%.
The blended revenue growth estimate for the 190 companies in this index is 5.1% for Q4 2025. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 65% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 35% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.
Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
This week in retail
Dick’s Sporting Goods delivered a solid holiday performance, with revenue growth outpacing expectations and same store sales (SSS) rising a healthy 3.1%. Despite this top‑line strength, earnings missed forecasts due largely to the recently completed Foot Locker acquisition. Management also issued full‑year guidance below LSEG consensus, prompting a pullback in the stock. While the deal temporarily weighed on profitability, Dick’s remains confident that Foot Locker is positioned for a meaningful rebound in 2025, particularly during the pivotal back‑to‑school season.
The 2025 holiday period once again underscored the resilience of value‑oriented retail, with Dollar General emerging as one of the season’s strongest performers. The discounter posted a 14.9% earnings increase, exceeded revenue expectations, and delivered a robust 4.3% SSS gain. Growth was driven by a 1.6% lift in customer traffic and a 1.4% increase in average transaction value. Strength was broad‑based across home goods, apparel, and everyday essentials. Dollar General expects moderate growth ahead as inflation continues to shape consumer spending patterns.
Conversely, department stores struggled to capture middle‑income consumers who increasingly prioritize value. Kohl’s underperformed during the holiday season due to misaligned inventory and promotional strategies that failed to resonate during key shopping events. Severe winter weather further pressured store traffic. As a result, the retailer missed both revenue and SSS expectations, though disciplined cost management allowed it to exceed earnings estimates.
In beauty, Ulta remains a standout. The category traditionally performs well during the holidays, and Ulta’s curated, trend‑right assortment, paired with strategic promotional offers, positioned the retailer for a strong quarter. Analysts surveyed by LSEG anticipate a healthy 4.2% SSS increase, reinforcing Ulta’s continued leadership in the beauty segment.
Here are the latest Q4 2025 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:
Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q4 2025
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
