To date, 178 of the 190 companies in our LSEG Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q4 2025, representing 94% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 62% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 6% delivered on-target results and 32% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q4 2025 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 2.9%.
The blended revenue growth estimate for the 190 companies in this index is 5.2% for Q4 2025. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 65% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 35% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.
Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
This week in retail
Affordability remains the dominant theme this earnings season. Dollar Tree delivered a solid Q4, beating earnings expectations and posting a 5% increase in same store sales (SSS). The discounter’s performance was driven by a 6.3% increase in average ticket, partially offset by a 1.2% decline in traffic. To meet continued demand for value, Dollar Tree accelerated its footprint expansion, opening 402 new stores last year.
Lululemon reports after the market close, and expectations are more mixed. LSEG forecasts EPS of $4.78, down from $6.14 last year, along with revenue of $3.58 billion, slightly below last year’s $3.61 billion. Same store sales are expected to decline 0.3%, which would mark the company’s weakest SSS performance since Q1 2017. Roughly 75% of Lululemon’s revenue comes from the Americas, where it faces intensifying competition. Still, the brand remains a global bright spot, continuing to grow internationally, with particular strength in mainland China, and has maintained its streak of 22 consecutive earnings beats.
Also reporting this week: Macy’s and Five Below. Department stores continue to struggle with middle‑income consumers shifting more aggressively toward value options. As a result, Macy’s is expected to post SSS of ‑0.5%, while value‑focused Five Below is on track for a standout 13.6% SSS. Five Below’s momentum during the holiday season highlights the widening performance gap between traditional department stores and value retailers positioned to capture cost‑conscious shoppers.
Here are the latest Q4 2025 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:
Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q4 2025
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
