To date, 171 of the 188 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2026, representing 91% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 73% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 23% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2026 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 26.5%.
The blended revenue growth estimate for the 188 companies in this index is 7.4% for Q1 2026. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 71% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 29% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.
Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
This week in retail
Consumer spending remained notably resilient in Q1, reinforcing the strength of value-oriented and discretionary retail demand despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. Dollar General reported Q1 revenue growth of 3.4% and same-store sales (SSS) growth of 2.0%. While both metrics came in slightly below consensus expectations, the discounter delivered an earnings beat and raised its full-year EPS guidance. Margin expansion was a key highlight, with strong operating profit growth helping to offset the impact of severe weather disruptions. Management noted that “topline results were highlighted by positive customer traffic and balanced category growth, while continued progress on our key initiatives drove another quarter of strong operating profit growth” (Source: Dollar General Corporation, Q1 2026 Earnings Release). The results suggest that value-conscious consumers remain engaged and that the company’s operational initiatives are gaining traction.
Victoria’s Secret delivered one of the strongest retail earnings reports of the quarter, significantly outperforming expectations. The retailer posted a robust 13% SSS increase, well above its final estimate of 11.8%, driven by double-digit sales growth across the Victoria’s Secret, PINK, and Beauty banners. The company also raised its full-year outlook, citing stronger-than-expected demand and lower tariff-related costs. Consistent with our channel checks and research, Victoria’s Secret has maintained greater pricing discipline, reducing its reliance on promotions and markdowns. This strategy translated into broad-based gross margin expansion, supported by higher full-price selling and fewer promotional events. The results underscore the success of management’s turnaround efforts and highlight improving brand momentum across key product categories.
Positive Earnings Surprise
As predicted by StarMine, both Ross Stores and TJX exceeded earnings expectations and delivered positive surprises, reinforcing continued strength in value-oriented retail. As consumers continue to seek value, analysts surveyed by LSEG continue to favor discount and other value oriented retailers. Looking ahead, sentiment remains particularly positive on Five Below’s Q1 performance, with results expected this week. Consensus estimates currently call for Q1 2026 SSS of 16.6% and EPS of $1.76; however, the StarMine Predicted Surprise is above 2%, signaling a strong likelihood that Five Below could also deliver both an earnings beat and a positive surprise.
The StarMine SmartEstimate is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate differs from the consensus (I/B/E/S mean) by more than 2%, the company is likely to post subsequent earnings surprises directionally correct 70% of the time. This percentage difference is referred to as the Predicted Surprise (PS%) (Exhibit 2).
Other retailers with Predicted Surprise scores above 2.0% include:
Exhibit 2: The LSEG Retail/Restaurant Index Positive Earnings Surprise %: Q1 2026
Source: LSEG Workspace
Here are the latest Q1 2026 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:
Exhibit 3: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q1 2026
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
