Q4 2019 U.S. Retail Scorecard- Update Feb. 27, 2020

Seventy-four percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q4 2019 EPS. Of the 155 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 71% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 6% reported earnings in line with expectations and 23% reported earnings below expectations. The Q4 2019 blended earnings growth estimate is 8.7%.

The Q4 2019 blended revenue growth estimate is 4.7%, with 59% reporting revenue above analyst expectations, and 41% reporting revenue below expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Retail earnings this week

As concerns about the coronavirus outbreak heightened, more retailers are providing negative guidance. Currently, discussions of the coronavirus have taken place in 66 earnings calls and that might not be the end of it.

To date, there have been 16 negative EPS pre-announcements for Q1 2020, compared to five positive pre-announcements. Likewise, there have been 16 negative revenue pre-announcements for Q1 2020, compared to eight positive.

Here are the Same Store Sales and Earnings estimates for retailers reporting earnings this week:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates/Results – Week Of Feb 24, 2019

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv