February 18, 2021

Q4 2020 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update February 18, 2020

by Jharonne Martis.

Fifty two percent of U.S. companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q4 2020 EPS. Of the 106 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 72% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 3% matched and 25% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q4 2020 blended earnings growth estimate is -10.8%.

The Q4 2020 blended revenue growth estimate is 7.2%. Seventy one percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 29% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: REFINITIV EARNINGS DASHBOARD

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

 Q4 2020 retail earnings

Walmart comp sales came in at 8.9%, above its 5.8% same store sales (SSS) estimate (Exhibit 2). It’s U.S. division comp sales came in at 8.6%, also above its 5.6% same store sales (SSS) estimate.

Still, its stock price fell on news of future investments, and it missed its earnings estimate. However, revenue came in above expectations and e-commerce sales grew an impressive 69% in Q4 2020.

Looking forward to retailers reporting earnings next week, here are Refinitiv expectations:

Exhibit 2: RETAILERS REPORTING Q4 2020 SAME STORE SALES AND EARNINGS

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

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