Q4 2020 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update February 23, 2020

Fifty eight percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q4 2020 EPS. Of the 119 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 74% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 3% matched and 23% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q4 2020 blended earnings growth estimate is -10.0%.

The Q4 2020 blended revenue growth estimate is 7.7%. Seventy one percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 29% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

 Q4 2020 retail earnings

Macy’s and Home Depot beat their Q4 2020 earnings, revenue and same store sales estimates. As previously predicted by StarMine, Crocs also beat its estimates and reported positive surprises. Macy’s saw the strongest sales in its home division and issued guidance in line with Refinitiv estimates.

E-commerce sales also came in strong for these retailers, as consumers continue to avoid malls and gravitate online. Both Macy’s and Walmart indicated in their earnings calls that the pandemic has permanently changed how customers shop and that e-commerce is here to stay.

This is in line with our research, U.S. consumers are telling us that the online shopping trend looks permanent, Refinitiv discovered in a survey collaboration with Maru/Blue Public Opinion. This survey suggests that the majority of U.S. consumers (67%) plan to continue shopping online vs. at brick-and-mortar retailers, even if a vaccine becomes available and the economy returns to “normal.”

Accordingly, U.S. e-commerce sales jumped 32.1% YoY in Q4 2020, and are projected to grow even further to 43.3% YoY in the current quarter, as per Refinitiv IFR.

Exhibit 2: U.S. E-commerce Sales YoY% Growth

Source: Refinitiv IFR

Looking forward to retailers reporting earnings, here are Refinitiv’s expectations:

Exhibit 3: Retailers Reporting Q4 2020 Same Store Sales and Earnings