Q4 2020 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update March 2, 2020

Seventy six percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q4 2020 EPS. Of the 157 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 69% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 3% matched and 28% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q4 2020 blended earnings growth estimate is -10.5%.

The Q4 2020 blended revenue growth estimate is 7.8%. Seventy percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 30% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

 Q4 2020 retail earnings

As predicted by StarMine data, both Target and Kohl’s reported positive surprises. Kohl’s continues to benefit from consumers returning Amazon products, which is a traffic driver for its own sales. Looking forward to 2021, the department store is excited about launching its own athleisure brand and its collaboration with Sephora. The retailer has also been managing inventory better by removing weaker-performing brands and plans to open a new fulfillment center. Its off-mall location also continues to place Kohl’s in a better position, compared to other department stores.

After a strong holiday season, stimulus checks also boosted Target’s January sales. During Target’s earnings call on March 2, its CEO said it gained meaningful market share across all five of its merchandising categories, totaling about $9 billion. Its proximity to the U.S. consumer has allowed its stores to fulfill same-day service in a seamless and cost-effective manner.

Looking forward to retailers reporting earnings next week, here are Refinitiv’s expectations:

Exhibit 2: Retailers Reporting Q4 2020 Same Store Sales and Earnings

Source: Refinitiv I/B/E/S