Q1 2021 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update May 19, 2021

Seventy one percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q1 2021 EPS. Of the 146 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 86% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 3% matched and 11% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q1 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 111%.

The Q1 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 14.5%. Seventy-one percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 29% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Q1 2021 e-commerce sales – least disruptive measure

This will be the first year where e-commerce sales results will be telling if the flight to online spending looks to become permanent or is fading.

Target beat its 4.3% e-commerce estimate, with a robust 50% Q1 2021 e-commerce growth (See table below). This is on top of very difficult comparisons from a year-ago when the discounter reported a stellar 141% e-commerce growth. This suggest that Target continues to gain market share on top of last year’s impressive digital growth.

Exhibit 2: Retailers Reporting Q1 2021 E-commerce Sales

Source: Refinitiv I/B/E/S

Q1 2021 retail earnings

Meanwhile, Target’s collaboration with Ulta Beauty and Levi’s continues to bring in new customers. Target also raised its employees’ salaries which helped keep shelves stocked and stores clean, which in return resulted in repeat customer visits. Meanwhile, Lowe’s smashed expectations, but the lack of guidance caused its stock to slip.

Here are the expectations for this week’s earnings:

 Exhibit 3: Retailers Reporting Q1 2021 Same Store Sales and Earnings

Source: Refinitiv I/B/E/S