Q1 2021 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update May 20, 2021

Seventy-five percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q1 2021 EPS. Of the 153 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 87% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 3% matched and 10% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q1 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 112.7%.

The Q1 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 14.5%. Seventy-three percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 27% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Q1 2021 retail earnings

Kohl’s beat its earnings and revenue estimates and saw a 69.5% year-over-year growth in sales from Q1 2020. However, this double digit growth is due to easy comparisons from a year ago, when physical stores were asked to stay closed. Therefore, the 69.5% growth is not an indication of organic growth and is below its 2019 pre-pandemic levels. In general, the department stores have been losing market share to Target, which has become the new one-stop shop. Still, analysts polled by Refinitiv are optimistic about Kohl’s collaboration with Sephora.

Meanwhile, BJ’s Wholesale beat its SSS estimate with a 0.3% result, on top of difficult comparisons from a year-ago. This suggests that the volume of business is holding up well.

Exhibit 2: Retailers Reporting Q1 2021 Same Store Sales and Earnings

Source: Refinitiv I/B/E/S