Q1 2021 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update May 26, 2021

Eighty two percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q1 2021 EPS. Of the 167 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 87% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 2% matched and 11% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q1 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 116.8%.

The Q1 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 15.1%. Seventy-five percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 25% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Q1 2021 retail earnings

All eyes are on Williams-Sonoma, which is expected to report earnings after the market close today. As per the StarMine data, the retailer is very likely to beat its earnings estimate and post a positive surprise.

Meanwhile, a number of retailers are expected to report double-digit e-commerce sales for Q1 2021 (Exhibit 2). This suggests that these retailers continue to gain market share online.

Exhibit 2: E-Commerce Sales Estimates/Results –Q1 2021

Source: Refinitiv I/B/E/S estimates

Here are this week’s Q1 2021 earnings expectations:

Exhibit 3: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates/Results –Q1 2021