England is pressing ahead with easing most remaining COVID-19 restrictions today, despite a sharp rise in new cases (see blue line in chart). The decision comes as the link between new cases and COVID-related hospital admissions and deaths (orange line in chart) seems to have been broken, given that a large share of the England’s adult population has been fully vaccinated. On the whole, this should be good news for the UK economy, in particular sectors such as hospitality and events. However, while many restrictions are being lifted, it is believed that more than 500,000 people in the UK have been told to self-isolate; not everybody is able to work from home, meaning that many businesses are facing staff shortages, which could lead to supply bottlenecks. This, coupled with strong demand, is likely to add to inflationary pressures, at least in the short run.
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