Q2 2021 US Retail Scorecard – Update August 17, 2021

Seventy one percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q2 2021 EPS. Of the 145 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 86% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 3% matched and 11% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q2 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 146.0%.

The Q2 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 23.6%. Eighty-three percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations and 17% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Q2 2021 retail earnings

Walmart and Home Depot beat their Q2 earnings, same store sales, net income and revenue estimates. These retailers stand out, as they continue to report stronger results than their 2019 pre-pandemic levels and above the difficult comparisons from last year, when they were deemed essential (Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 2: Revenue and Net Income Estimates and Results: 2019 – 2021

Refinitiv I/B/E/S estimates

Meanwhile, July U.S. retail sales came in below expectations, in line with the latest Refinitiv reading on Consumer Confidence showing a decline in spending.

Here are this week’s Q2 2021 earnings and same store sales expectations:

Exhibit 3: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates–Q2 2021

Refinitiv I/B/E/S estimates

Below are this week’s Q2 digital sales growth estimates.. Walmart reported a 6% Q2 growth in e-commerce, on top of last year’s 97% growth, suggesting online spending grew on top of difficult comparisons from a year-ago.

Exhibit 4: E-commerce Sales Estimates/Results –Q2 2021

Source: Refinitiv I/B/E/S