Q4 2023 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update Mar. 14, 2024

To date, 186 of the 204 companies in our retail/restaurant index have reported their EPS results for Q4 2023, representing 91% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 69% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 3% delivered on-target results and 28% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q4 2023 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 36.7%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 204 companies in this index is 4.6% for Q4 2023. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 58% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 42% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

Guidance

So far, 186 retailers have reported Q4 earnings; of this group, 117 mentioned inflation. Looking ahead to Q1 2024, 26 retailers issued negative preannouncements, while only four issued positive EPS guidance so far (Exhibit 2). Of those retailers offering revenue guidance, 28 warned of disappointing results, while only 15 said revenue might be better than previously expected.

Exhibit 2: Earnings and Revenue Guidance: Q1 2024

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

This week in retail sales and earnings

Both Dollar Tree and Dollar General reported Q4 comps of 3.0%, and 0.7%, respectively. Both beat their Q4 same store sales estimates. Still, despite the beat Dollar General provided lower than anticipated guidance. Meanwhile, Dollar Tree announced the closure of 1000 stores as the low-end consumer continues to be pressured by stubborn high prices.

On the flip side, Williams-Sonoma beat its Q4 earnings, revenue and SSS estimates. The home furnishing retailer had a healthy holiday season boosted by full-price selling. Williams-Sonoma also increased its quarterly dividend.

Here are the Q4 2023 earnings and same store sales estimates for the companies reporting this and next week:

Exhibit 3: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q4 2023

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S