Q2 2023 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update Aug. 31, 2023

To date, 187 of the 200 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2023, representing 94% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 79% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 5% delivered on-target results and 16% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2023 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 20.2%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 200 companies in this index is 3.3% for Q2 2023. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 63% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 37% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from LSEG

This week in retail

Dollar General posted weaker than expected Q2 financial results, and lowered its guidance for the fiscal year. Like other retailers, the discounter has been hurt by theft, which pressured margins. The discounter is making investments in its stores and saw a decline in store traffic during Q2.

Meanwhile, Lululemon is on track to post a robust 11.2% SSS, on top of last year’s difficult 23.0% SSS. The retailer has a loyal following and its merchandise continues to resonate well with its followers.

Here are the Q2 2023 earnings and same store sales estimates for the companies reporting this week:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates–Q2 2023

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S