Q4 2021 US Retail Scorecard – Update February 25, 2022

Seventy-two percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q4 2021 EPS. Of the 144 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 77% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 1% matched and 22% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q4 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 46.6%.

The Q4 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 13.6%. Seventy-five percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 25% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Q4 2021 earnings

Of the 144 companies in the retail/restaurant index that have reported Q4 2021 earnings, 110 mentioned inflation and 131 mentioned the supply issues.

Etsy reported record fourth quarter sales “driven by an early and strong kickoff to the holiday season in October and extended strength through December” (Source: Etsy Q4 2021 Earnings Call). Etsy also announced it will increase its transaction fee, which it plans to invest in improving its seller’s tools and improving its customer experience.

Here are this and next week’s Q4 2021 earnings and same store sales expectations:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates–Q4 2021

Refinitiv I/B/E/S estimates