Q3 2024 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update November 27, 2024 

To date, 169 of the 194 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q3 2024, representing 87% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 63% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 33% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q3 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 7.5%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 194 companies in this index is 3.7% for Q3 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 52% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 48% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

This week in retail

As predicted by LSEG, Abercrombie & Fitch posted its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit same-store sales (SSS) growth, with a Q3 SSS of 16.0%, surpassing its 10.0% estimate. The teen retailer also exceeded both earnings and revenue expectations. During the earnings call, executives expressed optimism about their growth strategies, including expansion in athleisure and international markets. Additionally, the strong quarter highlights parents’ willingness to splurge on discretionary items, which aligns with LSEG’s latest consumer confidence report showing increased optimism as the holiday season approaches.

Looking ahead to Q3 earnings next week, analysts polled by LSEG are bearish on Dollar General and Foot Locker. Dollar General’s core customers have been hit hardest by persistent, sticky prices. Meanwhile, Foot Locker began the quarter with healthy back-to-school sales, but traffic slowed in the latter part of the quarter. Despite this, the footwear retailer remains optimistic about its Q4 performance, buoyed by the launch of new styles just in time for the holiday season.

Here are the Q3 2024 earnings and same store sales estimates for the companies reporting this week:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q3 2024

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S