Q4 2020 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update February 22, 2020

Fifty five percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q4 2020 EPS. Of the 113 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 72% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 3% matched and 25% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q4 2020 blended earnings growth estimate is -10.9%.

The Q4 2020 blended revenue growth estimate is 7.4%. Seventy percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 30% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

 Q4 2020 retail earnings

The pandemic caused many corporations to withdraw earnings and revenue guidance. The StarMine SmartEstimate is, therefore, more significant than ever for anticipated clues, as it helps predict the direction of future earnings and revenue surprise results. The StarMine data is telling us that we can expect positive predictive surprises on both earnings and revenue for Crocs this week. The shoemaker that is famous for its foam clogs is on track to report a 55% jump in sales.

Crocs has done an excellent job marketing itself as a comfortable shoe in a time when consumers value comfort over fashion. Its collaborations with celebrities including Justin Bieber and Post Malone have sold out. What’s more, it donated over 800,000 shoes to health workers during the pandemic, thus attracting shoppers who want to buy from retailers that add value to the community. It’s gained new customers during the pandemic and plans to retain them with its customizable stations in stores.

Exhibit 2: Crocs Revenue YoY% Growth

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Here are the latest estimates for retailers reporting soon:

Exhibit 3: Retailers Reporting Q4 2020 Same Store Sales and Earnings

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv